Community Magazine July 2014

54 COMMUNITY MAGAZINE The economy of ancient Israel was vitally dependent upon rainfall, as is that of modern Israel. Without sufficient rain in the winter season, the crops could fail, drinking water might be lacking, and disaster would strike. For good reason, then, rain is a matter of great importance in Jewish tradition. And thus at the end of the hot, dry Israeli summer, on the festival of Shemeni Atzeret, we pray to Gd for the blessing of rain. Indeed, one of the most moving prayers in our liturgy is the special prayer for rain. I n years of drought, the rabbis would ordain a series of special prayers and fasts, appealing to Gd to have mercy on His people and send the precious rain.An entire tractate of the Talmud, Taanit, is devoted primarily to the order of the special prayers and fasts to be conducted by a community when there is no rainfall. The basic assumption underlying the special prayers and fasts for rain is that one can never know whether or not the needed rains will come, and, therefore, one must appeal to Gd’s mercy. The inability of scientists to accurately predict next week’s rain is very obvious. Just plan a picnic on the basis of last week’s weather forecast, and you’ll see just how imprecise and speculative forecasts are. However, what about the future? Surely, the day will come when the accuracy of weather forecasting is so improved that meteorologists will be able to make precise long-range weather predictions. What, then, will be the meaning and purpose of our prayers for rain? To illustrate this point, let us draw a contrast between rainfall and sunshine, which is even more vital than rain. It would be absolutely catastrophic if the sun did not rise in the morning and shine during the daytime. Without sunlight, all plants would die, and the end of animal life would quickly follow. Nevertheless, the rabbis of the Talmud never ordained special prayers beseeching Gd to cause the sun to shine, for the simple reason that the shining of the sun occurs with certainty. It is unnecessary, and in fact inappropriate, to pray to Gd to maintain the laws of nature. The laws of nature are always operative unless Gd decides to make a miracle. Therefore, if the prediction of rain were to become a certainty as a result of vastly improved weather forecasting, it would be similarly inappropriate to pray for rain. Weather Forecasting There is no conceptual difficulty in long-range weather forecasting. Meteorology, the science of weather forecasting, deals with the atmosphere. The atmosphere consists of a known mixture of gases (oxygen, nitrogen, argon, carbon dioxide, and water vapor), which, under certain circumstances, form rain. The source of energy in the atmosphere is also known – it comes from the sun and the surface of the earth – and the source of atmospheric water vapor is the oceans and the seas. Moreover, for well over a century, meteorologists have understood the equations that govern the interactions among the various elements that comprise the atmosphere. These equations are Newton’s laws of motion and the gas laws, in conjunction with gravity and the principles of thermodynamics. Rain is determined by seven atmospheric parameters (temperature, air pressure, moisture content, amount of cloud cover, and wind speed along the three axes). In order to predict whether it NATHAN AVIEZER CHAOS, RAIN, Will the advancement of modern technology in long-range weather forecasting make our prayers for rain unnecessary – or even forbidden? and the TORAH